Comments: Oh good. The location data is garbage until halfway across Sumac!! I got impatient waiting for the GPS to find the satellites and just started running at the end of the alley. The trace is unrecognizable.
Data on map only goes to 30:05 or 30:06...in other words, there is a mismatch of 39:01 - 30:06 = 8:55 where there's missing spatial data - lat/lon/(distance/speed are approximated). Elevation data exists before 8:55 because of backfilling (it is flat). Then, lat/lon data appears at 8:55, but it's wonky. It is over on violet when I'm on upland. Then it jumps south of where I am, then it finally finds me at approx 7:09 + 8:55 = 16:04. That's where I started trusting the plotted data. Keep in mind the plot is correct after this point, but there is no agreement with the map.
The real-world distance from start to good data (right before sumac/15th), is 2.1 mi. 7:40 min/mile. 140' net gain, avg grade of 1.3%. Assume some speed variability, so normalized pace is approx 7:30. Plug that into the power model w/ threshold pace = 6:30...IF = 0.905. This agrees with my experience, because I felt like I was pushing the pace (and I liked that).